Solution 1: Revolutionize the Way We Farm

  Solution 2: Change Our Diets

  Solution 3: Eliminate Food Loss and Waste

  Barriers

  Conclusions

  7. The Energy Turnaround: “Electrifying Everything”

  Challenges

  Don’t Look Up

  Solution 1: Introduce Systemic Efficiency

  Solution 2: Electrify (almost) Everything

  Solution 3: Exponential Growth in New Renewables

  The Energy Turnaround in the Earth4All Analysis

  Barriers

  Conclusions

  8. From “Winner Take All” Capitalism to Earth4All Economies

  A New Economic Operating System.

  The Rise of Rentier Capitalism

  Rethinking the Commons in the Anthropocene

  The Conventional Economic Gameboard

  Redrawing the Gameboard

  Short-termism: The Road to a Parasitic Financial System

  Putting the Systems Change into Effect

  How to Resolve the Systems Failure

  Conclusions

  9. A Call to Action

  Is Earth for All Closer Than We Think?

  A Chorus of Voices

  Appendix: The Earth4All Model

  Model Purpose

  Model History

  The Main Sectors in the Model

  Model Causal Loop Diagram

  Model Novelty

  The Earth for All Game

  Notes

  Index

  About the Authors

  About the Publisher

  Contributors

  MAIN AUTHORS

  Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Owen Gaffney, Jayati Ghosh, Jorgen

  Randers, Johan Rockström, Per Espen Stoknes

  CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS

  TEC= Members of the 21st Century Transformational Economics Commission:

  Anders Wijkman (TEC), Hunter Lovins (TEC),

  Dr. Mamphela Ramphele (TEC), Ken Webster (TEC)

  CONTRIBUTORS

  Nafeez Ahmed (TEC), Lewis Akenji (TEC), Sharan Burrow (TEC), Robert Costanza (TEC), David Collste, Emmanuel Faber (TEC), Lorenzo Fioramonti (TEC), Eduardo Gudynas (TEC), Andrew Haines (TEC), Gaya Herrington (TEC), Garry Jacobs (TEC), Till Kellerhoff, Karthik Manickam, Anwesh Mukhopadhyay, Jane Kabubo-Mariara (TEC), David Korten (TEC), Nigel Lake, Masse Lo, Chandran Nair (TEC), Carlota Perez (TEC), Kate Pickett (TEC), Janez Potočnik (TEC), Otto Scharmer (TEC), Stewart Wallis (TEC), Ernst von Weizsäcker (TEC), Richard Wilkinson (TEC)

  DATA SYNTHESIS, SYSTEM ANALYSIS, AND MODELLING TEAM

  Jorgen Randers, Ulrich Golüke, David Collste, Sarah Mashhadi, Sarah Cornell, Per Espen Stoknes, Jonathan Donges, Dieter Gerten, Jannes Breier, Luana Schwarz, Ben Callegari, Johan Rockström

  SUPPORTING DEEP DIVE PAPERS (AVAILABLE AT WWW.EARTH4ALL.LIFE)

  Nafeez Ahmed, Shouvik Chakraborty, Anuar Sucar Diaz Ceballos, Debamanyu Das, Jayati Ghosh, Gaya Herrington, Adrina Ibnat Jamilee Adiba, Nigel Lake, Masse Lô, Chandran Nair, Rebecca Nohl, Sanna O’Connor, Julia Okatz, Kate Pickett, Janez Potočnik, Dr. Mamphela Ramphele, Otto Scharmer, Anders Wijkman, Richard Wilkinson, Jorgen Randers, Ken Webster

  EDITORS

  Joni Praded, Ken Webster, Owen Gaffney, and Per Espen Stoknes

  EARTH4ALL PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND SUPPORT

  Per Espen Stoknes (Scientific Work Packages), Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Anders Wijkman (TEC), Owen Gaffney (Communications), Till Kellerhoff (Coordination)

  EARTH4ALL CAMPAIGN TEAM AND BOOK STORY DEVELOPMENT

  Philippa Baumgartner, Rachel Bloodworth, Liz Callegari, Lena Belly-Le Guilloux, Andrew Higham, Nigel Lake, Luca Miggiano, Zoe Tcholak-Antitch

  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

  Azeem Azhar, Tomas Björkman, Alvaro Cedeño Molinari, John Fullerton, Enrico Giovannini, Maja Göpel, Steve Keen, Connie Hedegaard, Sunita Narain, Julian Popov, Kate Raworth, Tom Cummings, Petra Künkel, Grace Eddy, Megan McGill, Roberta Benedetti, Vaclav Smil, Julia Kim, Roman Krznaric, Sir Lord Nicholas Stern, Andrea Athanas, Kaddu Sebunya

  FUNDERS

  Angela Wright Bennett Foundation, Global Challenges Foundation, Laudes Foundation, Partners for a New Economy

  GRAPHICS

  Les Copland, Philippa Baumgartner

  MEMBERS OF THE 21ST CENTURY TRANSFORMATIONAL ECONOMICS COMMISSION

  Nafeez Ahmed, Director of Global Research Communications, RethinkX; and Research Fellow, Schumacher Institute for Sustainable Systems

  Lewis Akenji, Managing Director, Hot or Cool Institute

  Azeem Azhar, Founder, Exponential View

  Tomas Björkman, Founder, Ekskäret Foundation

  Sharan Burrow, General Secretary, International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC)

  Alvaro Cedeño Molinari, Former Costa Rican Ambassador to Japan and the WTO

  Robert Costanza, Professor of Ecological Economics, Institute for Global Prosperity (IGP) at University College London (UCL)

  Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Co-President, The Club of Rome and Project Lead, Earth4All

  Emmanuel Faber, Chair, International Sustainability Standards Board

  Lorenzo Fioramonti, Professor of Political Economy, and Member of the Italian Parliament

  John Fullerton, Founder and President, Capital Institute

  Jayati Ghosh, Professor of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA; formerly at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

  Maja Göpel, Political economist and transformation researcher

  Eduardo Gudynas, Senior Researcher, Latin American Center on Social Ecology (CLAES)

  Andy Haines, Professor of Environmental Change and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

  Connie Hedegaard, Chair, OECD’s Roundtable for Sustainable Development, former European Commissioner

  Gaya Herrington, Vice-President ESG Research at Schneider Electric

  Tim Jackson, Professor of Sustainable Development and Director of CUSP, the Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity at the University of Surrey

  Garry Jacobs, President & CEO, World Academy of Art & Science.

  Jane Kabubo-Mariara, President of the African Society for Ecological Economists, : ED, Partnership for Economic Policy

  Steve Keen, Honorary Professor at University College London and ISRS Distinguished Research Fellow

  Julia Kim, Program Director, Gross National Happiness Centre, Bhutan

  Roman Krznaric, Public philosopher and author

  David Korten, Author, speaker, engaged citizen, and president of the Living Economies Forum

  Hunter Lovins, President, Natural Capital Solutions; Managing Partner, NOW Partners

  Chandran Nair, Founder and CEO, The Global Institute for Tomorrow

  Sunita Narain, Director-General Centre for Science and Environment, Delhi and editor, Down To Earth

  Carlota Perez, Honorary Professor at IIPP, University College London (UCL); SPRU, University of Sussex and Taltech, Estonia.

  Janez Potočnik, Co-chair of the UN International Resource Panel, former European Commissioner

  Kate Pickett, Professor of Epidemiology, University of York

  Mamphela Ramphele, Co-President, The Club of Rome

  Kate Raworth, Renegade economist, creator of the Doughnut of social and planetary boundaries, and co-founder of Doughnut Economics Action Lab.

  Jorgen Randers, Professor Emeritus of Climate Strategy, BI Norwegian Business School

  Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

  Otto Scharmer, Senior Lecturer, MIT, and Founding Chair, Presencing Institute

  Ernst von Weizsäcker, Honorary President, The Club of Rome

  Stewart Wallis, Executive Chair, Wellbeing Economy Alliance

  Ken Webster, Director International Society for Circular Economy

  Anders Wijkman, Chair of the Governing Board, Climate-KIC, Honorary President, The Club of Rome

  Foreword

  by Christiana Figueres

  Former Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), one of the architects of the Paris Agreement, co-founder of Global Optimism, and co-host of the climate podcast Outrage + Optimism.

  Millions of people around the world are suffering deeply as a result of climate chaos, environmental degradation, and perverse inequality. For way too long, the multilateral system and civil society have defined and described those multiple crises as separate, each with their own unique set of solutions, often in competition with each other. In fact, they are different aspects of what we might understand as the metacrisis.

  Earth for All shows how we address these crises together, and that’s what makes it such critical reading. This is a path of possibility, infused with stubborn, urgent optimism. Earth for All does not gloss over the facts or current context, nor does it offer a utopian vision for the future. What this book shows us is that it is possible to avoid rising social tensions, rising human suffering, and rising environmental destruction by making five extraordinary turnarounds in the interconnected challenges.

  As we prepare for these challenges, it would serve us well to understand that they are interconnected not only in their social and economic realities but more fundamentally in their source. The climate crisis, the nature crisis, the inequality crisis, the food crisis all share the same deep root: extractivism based on extrinsic principles. This extractivism does not only deplete the planet—the very soil of the Earth itself—it also depletes our human souls.

  In order to take forward the good and necessary work to regenerate our planet and societies, to turn around our economic systems so that we can see the positive changes with our own eyes, we must also regenerate what is internally palpable to each of us.

  We are going to need a nourishing and optimistic mindset to muster the courage necessary to transform economies so that human and planetary wellbeing come first. The economy after all is a system that we humans designed. In its current form, the global economy reflects a chronic neglect of our inner world and what human beings hold most dear. We reward competition instead of cooperation. We reward environmental destruction instead of balance with nature. We reward short-term gains instead of long-term peace and prosperity for future generations.

  To turn this around, the invisible, internal world within each of us needs regenerating too, with compassion and solidarity for ourselves and each other. The metacrisis is not only extrinsic—exiting outside of ourselves, it is intrinsic—existing within ourselves.

  When I took the role of Executive Secretary at the UNFCCC, I was asked during my first press conference whether I thought a global agreement on climate change was possible. I blurted out: “Not in my lifetime!” But as soon as I said those words, which accurately reflected the prevailing mood, I realized that if we were to achieve a global deal, I was going to have to change my attitude. I, personally, would have to become a beacon of possibility. So I set about the deep work to transform people’s attitudes, starting with myself. The journey was long, difficult, and involved thousands of people working together. The end result was the historic Paris Agreement on climate change just a few years later.

  Large-scale systems change is surprisingly personal. It starts with each of us, with what we prioritize, what we are willing to stand up for, and how we decide to show up in the world: we are the authors of the next chapter of humanity.

  So, I encourage the reader—especially if you are a leader in your community, company, or city—to pause for a moment before you dive into this most excellent text to turn around and face yourself. Think very carefully and intentionally about the Giant Leap you must—and can—make inside yourself in order to contribute fully to the extraordinary Giant Leap for which Earth for All so generously offers us the road map.

  Foreword

  by Elizabeth Wathuti

  Climate activist and founder, Green Generation Initiative

  Some of the best and most powerful moments in my life have been sitting by the side of the river, watching the water flowing, and seeing the trees swaying in the wind. In those moments, it’s possible to feel our true connection to nature. Nature is the air we breathe, the food we eat, and it’s connected to our health and wellbeing. The beauty of nature can make us feel happy; it’s how we can feel at peace.

  Seeing nature destroyed can make us feel very angry; it makes me feel angry. Even as I work to help children plant trees within their school compounds every day, around the world, enormous machines still cut down entire forests faster than we can snap our fingers, extracting “wealth” for export. The rivers are polluted with toxic chemicals and plastic that destroy our ability to find joy by sitting on the riverbanks, and to access clean drinking water.

  The humanitarian crisis resulting from this ecocidal relationship with the Earth is rapidly worsening. Poverty and inequality are creating unbearable differences between and within countries. Today, millions of people across the Horn of Africa are facing climate-related starvation. The situation is shocking. I have seen lives and livelihoods devastated by drought in my home country, Kenya. I have visited and talked to communities in Wajir who are losing hope for the future.

  And, even as they lose their livestock and suffer greatly, many in these rural communities do not yet know the scale of the climate crisis. They do not know that the crisis they are experiencing is happening all over the world, across boundaries, as a result of a global economic system that is horribly broken.

  At the same time, it seems that our world leaders do not really understand or feel the pain of the climate crisis and its devastating impact on people, despite what they have been told. They seem not to see that the system we have now is not working for most people.

  Professor Wangari Mathai, one of my greatest inspirations, said “Those of us who understand, who feel strongly, must not tire. We must persist. The burden is on those who know. We are the ones who get disturbed and are caused to take action.”

  I have asked our world leaders to open their hearts and feel the pain and suffering. I have asked them to listen to the truth and act with compassion because I believe that the will to act must come from deep within. We have a human capacity to care deeply and to then act.

  If we open our hearts, the seeds of transformative action will flourish. We can take a Giant Leap from the interconnected crises we face now into a future with a stable climate, clean air, clean water, and food security for all. But to do so, we need to change our way of thinking, and we need to start telling new stories about what is important and what is possible. That’s why the stories in this book are so important, because they put people’s wellbeing at the heart of the solutions.

  Eliminating poverty and addressing inequality together, in order for our societies to be able to address the climate crisis and its impact, is exactly what Wangari Mathai stood for when she began her courageous work planting trees. At the heart of Professor Mathai’s work to stop deforestation was her goal to empower women: to give them the means to provide fuel, food, shelter, and income to support the education of their children.

  Earth for All is a call to participate in this interconnected work and thinking. It’s a reminder of how enormous the transformations we must make are, that it is possible to change the system we have built; and it’s full of new ideas about how to put wellbeing and dignity, and cooperation and solidarity, right at the root of action.

  I love the idea of citizens assemblies as a powerful way to bring the voices of the people and their ideas for change to our global leaders, and I hope thousands of these assemblies can bloom. I know from Professor Mathai’s legacy and my own work that people can be agents of their own future, even when the challenges they face are overwhelming. And I know that our leaders do have hearts. My wish is that they open their hearts, so that we can all work together for a future that this book says can be achieved.

  I hope you can find a beautiful tree or river to sit by and read it.

  1 Earth for All

  Five Extraordinary Turnarounds for Global Equity on a Healthy Planet

  This is a book about our future—the collective future of humanity this century, to be precise. Civilization is at a unique moment, a juncture. Pandemics, wildfires, and wars swirl around us as we write, sure signs that societies remain extremely vulnerable to shocks despite unprecedented progress. Beyond the immediate turbulence, we are in the midst of a planetary emergency of our own making. What this book will argue is that the long-term potential of humanity depends upon civilization—a wondrous, freewheeling, kaleidoscopic, inspiring, confounding civilization—undergoing nothing short of five extraordinary turnarounds within the coming decades.

  We know the pain points. Everyone knows we must end extreme poverty for billions. Everyone knows we must fix the inequality crisis. Everyone knows we need an energy revolution. Everyone knows our industrial diets are killing us, and the way we farm food is ripping through nature, driving a sixth mass extinction of species. We know human populations cannot increase endlessly. And we know our material footprint cannot expand infinitely on our finite, blue and green Earth.

  Can “we”—meaning all people and peoples—come together to navigate this century? Can we take a collective leap in human development with courage and conviction? Can we overcome divisions, neo-colonial and financial exploitation, historic inequalities, and deep, deep distrust among nations to deal with the long-term emergency? Can we achieve systemic transformation in decades, not centuries?

  Our goal with Earth for All is to show you that this is indeed fully possible. And that it won’t cost the Earth. Rather, it is an investment in our future. Based on expert assessments supported by system dynamics models, the pages ahead explore the most likely routes to emerge from these emergencies; the pathways that bring the most humanitarian, social, environmental, and economic benefits to all.

  Earth for All is about valuing our future. Most people value their personal future. But what about valuing our collective future? As a civilization, as eight billion people, as an entangled web of societies? Well, the evidence that we do is very limited. The COVID-19 pandemic is certainly a prime example of this failure. Despite enormous wealth in some countries, we simply did not put in place basic safeguards to protect civilization from a threat that was known, highly likely, and entirely avoidable. The investment in adequate preparation was, essentially, peanuts compared with the global suffering to date.