Microtrends the small fo.., p.18
Microtrends_The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes,
p.18
Yet, the truth is that there is a new generation out there—and the stereotypes of the 1950s and 1960s have to give way to the reality of the first decade of the twenty-first century. The progress that has been made by a segment of the black community is nothing short of amazing. While several hundred thousand black teenagers get in trouble with the law each year, several hundred thousand are also in college and planning first-rate careers. Black youth are the fastest-growing group of college graduates, and when they get out, there are often lucrative job offers waiting for them. The emergence of this new class of black super-achievers is changing American culture, breaking old stereotypes, and tearing down the race barriers in offices and in the corridors of power. It is less and less about how black youth have gone wrong, and more about how they have gone right. For a growing microtrend of black youth, the system is working.
Perhaps underpinning this good news is the values-oriented nature of these young people. When compared on the three leading indicators of good citizenship—churchgoing, volunteering, and voting—black youth are either outdoing whites or are overrepresented relative to their population.
In the area of churchgoing, black teens have completely flipped with their white peers. In the 1970s, over 4 in 10 white twelfth-graders regularly went to church, compared to only about one-third of black twelfth-graders. In the past thirty years, that trend has completely reversed. Now over 4 in 10 black twelfth-graders regularly go to church, compared to less than one-third of white twelfth-graders.
Source: Child Trends, 2004
Moreover, among twelfth-graders in 2004, over half (54 percent) of black students said religion played a very important role in their lives, compared to only about one-quarter (27 percent) of white students. While churchgoing is not the only measure of religiousness, studies show that taking religion seriously is strongly correlated with lower drug and alcohol abuse, later sexual activity, and altruistic attitudes and behavior. It is also correlated with lower delinquency, lower risk-taking, greater amounts of exercise and self-care, and less trouble in school and with the police. Yes, blacks’ high school dropout rates are higher than whites, so some of them don’t make it into that twelfth-grader study. But the dramatic contrast here suggests that it is time to reassess some teen stereotypes.
On the volunteering front, while youth volunteer rates among blacks have traditionally been lower than among whites, the number of black twelfth-grade volunteers has been steadily rising over the past ten years, and is now equal to (and, in some recent years, higher than) white rates. When you stretch the age group to 15–25, blacks are the most likely among all racial/ethnic groups to say they believe they can personally make a difference in their community. And when you look just at the men, young black males actually have higher volunteer rates (63 percent) than either young whites (57 percent) or young Hispanics (48 percent). In the premier community service program City Year, in which 17–24-year-olds do a year of service after high school, blacks make up over 32 percent of the volunteer corps—which is more than twice their representation in the general population.
Finally, when it comes to political activism, voting, and civic studies, young blacks also outdo their peers. According to a 2007 study by CIRCLE, the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, young African-Americans have the highest rates among 15–25-year-olds of both voter registration and political activity. They are also the only racial/ethnic group of young people to have increased their turnout at midterm elections. Young blacks are also the most likely group to view voting as important; and at 72 percent, are by far the biggest supporters of making civics or government classes a requirement for high school graduation.
This kind of civic devotion and constructive democratic participation is just not the rap that young black men generally get. Black teens are an area where old stereotypes die hard, and where, as a result, opportunities for and investment in these youth lag well behind potential value.
While there haven’t been comprehensive studies on the backgrounds of Black Teen Idols, they seem to come from families who also value religion, volunteering, and/or civic engagement. (Almost half of all black adults—46 percent—volunteer through a religious organization, which is a substantially higher rate than among whites or Hispanics.) And these youth know what they’re after in terms of doing good and giving back. They are drawn to churches that give leadership roles to youth. When they volunteer, they are drawn to activities like mentoring and tutoring (while white volunteers outpace them in activities like “fund-raising” and “supplying transportation”). Politically, they are generally Democrats, but a 2002 study reported that over one-third of blacks aged 18–25 call themselves Independent. The bottom line is: Most young blacks in America are serious, engaged, independent, and ready to make a positive difference in people’s lives.
These developments among black youth are part of a larger trend whereby young blacks are doing better than ever in America. High school dropout rates among black youth have fallen from about 30 percent in the late 1960s to 10 percent now. Black college enrollment among recent high school graduates has grown to almost two-thirds, from just 45 percent in 1972. Between 1976 and 2004, the number of black men graduating from college every year almost doubled (and the number of black women almost tripled). Black master’s degree conferees grew by more than twice in that time, while white master’s-degree-earners grew by only 39 percent.
And as compared to fifty years ago, the number of prosperous black families has grown dramatically. More than 40 percent of black households are now middle-class, up from about 20 percent in 1960. Forty-two percent of blacks own their own homes, and among black married couples that figure rises to at least 75 percent. Black-owned businesses grew 45 percent between 1997 and 2002. A few of them are so well off they just might even become Republicans.
What this means is not only that the black middle class is larger than most of America would think from watching the evening news—but also that there is an emerging group of black youth poised to enrich and lead society in substantial ways. Indeed, most black teens in America—including the boys—are in school, relatively pious, committed to American democracy, and doing their part (or more) to make America better. They are not only a serious target market for the technology, apparel, sports, and entertainment industries, they are also ready recruits for college, job, volunteer, and leadership opportunities at every level.
True, too many young blacks in America are struggling, and a nation as prosperous as ours must turn some substantial attention to their challenges. But the media and the marketers need to get some of the clichés right, too, given how much extraordinary citizenship most black youth are modeling. The black super-achievers are out there, gaining significantly on their white counterparts. It is only a matter of time before this success-oriented group drives fundamental change in the black community. They are a testament to what is right in America at a time when so much seems so wrong.
High School Moguls
When I was 13, I started my first business—I sold stamps for collectors on approval through the mail. By advertising in the New York Times, I developed a clientele for my stamps and it was my first experience with business. I kept double-entry books, bought wholesale at auctions, and sold retail through the mail. I just couldn’t wait to check the P.O. box after school on my way home. I did not have many friends back then who were doing the same thing.
Today the Internet and eBay make teen entrepreneurship easier than ever, and the sunglasses you are buying on the Web may just be from a High School Mogul on the other end. Lemonade stands, greeting cards, and babysitting are out; the Web is in. In fact, according to Business Week, as of 2000, 8 percent of all teens—or about 1.6 million young people in the U.S.—were making money on the Internet.
Sure, some of them were just selling their fathers’ old baseball cards on eBay, or unloading the Christmas camera that was a whole three months behind the times. But increasingly, kids are turning their favorite activity—interacting online—into serious business. And part of the reason is that they can; when your face to the world is an elegant Web site—and all your transactions go through secure and efficient PayPal—who needs to know that your actual face needs extra-strength Clearasil?
Do you know www.ChocolateFarm.com, the Colorado-based company that has about a dozen employees and several thousand hits a day, sells its award-winning Brown Cows, Pigs in Mud, and Pecan Turtles to chocolate-lovers around the country? Founder and CEO Elise MacMillan starts college in 2007. She began the company when she was 10, while her brother Evan, then 13, managed the Web site. Or take AnandTech.com, a pioneer hardware-review site that gives 130,000 viewers per day up-to-the-minute news and analyses of digital cameras, video cameras, and other computer hardware. Anand Shimpi, of Raleigh, North Carolina, started it in 1997 at age 14.
Some of these businesses reap serious rewards. According to YoungBiz Magazine, the top 100 entrepreneurs in America aged 8–18 in 2001 earned a total of $7 million in profits.
And kids today love this stuff. According to Junior Achievement, more than 7 in 10 teens say they’re interested in becoming entrepreneurs, up from just 64 percent in 2004. Nearly half say it’s because they “have a great idea/want to see it in action”; another quarter say it’s because they want to “earn more than they could working for someone else.” These are not the teens of yesteryear who delivered papers and babysat to earn cash for movies (now they can download the movies, anyway). Today’s kids want to create and run their own show.
Called “’treps” by YoungBiz Magazine (short for entrepreneurs)—or “eTreps” if their main storefront is online—High School Moguls are getting some serious national attention in the media, not to mention college scholarships. Camps, summer programs, extracurriculars, and nonprofits are growing up to stimulate more and more Youth Biz. In August 2006, the U.S. Small Business Administration launched “Mind Your Own Business”—an online resource aimed at helping teenagers move a start-up from idea to revenue. They might consider “Don’t Sell Weed—Sell Widgets,” as a slogan.
Private industry, too, has leapt on the trend. Internet-based companies troll for young, part-time workers with skills and drive. A host of new books advise young people how to make and manage way more money than their parents ever had. Rich Dad, Poor Dad for Teens: The Secrets About Money—That You Don’t Learn in School! has sold over 50,000 copies in two years.
Of course, youthful business initiative is not brand-new. Jim Casey founded the predecessor to UPS in 1907 at age 19. Paul Orfalea founded Kinko’s in the 1970s just out of college. But those guys waited years, if not decades, to see their companies develop. These days, teens build their customer base to millions within months, or they know it’s time to move on to the next thing. (Like their English homework.)
What with all this burbling teen capitalism, one might ask if kids these days will even still want to go to college. So far, they do; the overwhelming majority of teens say college is important for starting a business. In fact, the creation of a successful high school business is often one of those great, distinguishing stories to tell on a college application. But what about business school? For their own reasons—having to do with being able to tout graduates’ higher average starting salaries—business schools have been making their classes older and older, anyway. To this generation of 17-year-olds, will B-school even be relevant when they’re twice that age, with serious business experience under their (hip-hugging) belts?
And High School Moguls may not have the patience to work their way through other people’s companies. Already, there are a host of books detailing generation gaps at work—whereby 60-something bosses see 20-something employees e-mailing during meetings, and nearly demote them for insubordination—when in fact the young employees were just skillfully multitasking. But when kids make money so young—not just by being dedicated, like in the old days, but by being ingenious—will they wait around in their 20s to pay their corporate dues?
One of the biggest problems teen entrepreneurs have is that the laws were written to protect them—so as a result, few people will do business with them if they know their age. Almost anything a teenager says is not binding in most states; they can get out of contracts with a wink. And who wants to be responsible for a teenager and the bills they can run up? We may need to have some changes in the laws on teenage responsibility—if they can be tried as an adult for crimes, why shouldn’t they be allowed to operate as an adult in business?
Now when we talk about the world being flat, we have to add Global Teenage Entrepreneurs to the mix, and the millions of new businesses that can now bring their products to market on a global basis. Years ago, I was pretty amazed that I could take out a classified advertisement in the New York Times. Today, a High School Mogul in Dubuque can bring in orders from Hong Kong. America may not have all the engineers it needs to win the global science contests, but we should seize and celebrate our Teen Moneymakers. They are a sign that the country’s creative spirit is alive and well, and that America is nurturing innovation at the earliest possible opportunity in uniquely American ways.
Aspiring Snipers
I have been a pollster for thirty years. With every new poll I read, whether it’s for a presidential candidate or a corporate client—here in the U.S. or elsewhere in the world—I learn something new about what people think. Part of the reason I love this work is that every day I find out some new aspiration, hope, or concern people have, and I get to help my clients shape their products and messages based on those findings.
But after thirty years and hundreds of thousands of polls, there’s not that much that is out-of-the-box new. Things intrigue me, yes; refine my understanding—most definitely. But it’s the rare moment that a poll stops me in my tracks and reorients my understanding of things.
One of those moments happened in December 2006. My friend and colleague Sergio Bendixen, president of Bendixen and Associates in Miami and a preeminent expert in Hispanic public opinion research, conducted a cell phone poll of 600 Californians, aged 16–22, and asked them (innocuously enough), “What do you think you will most likely be doing in ten years?” It was an open-ended question, meaning that the respondents could give any answer they wanted (rather than being guided by a list of possible answers). As expected, almost 70 percent of the young folks said they’d be working, some in a specific career or running their own businesses. Twelve percent said they’d be in college, and 12 percent said they’d be raising a family. One percent said they’d be in the military. And then, like a bolt from the blue, another 1 percent of California’s young respondents volunteered that, in ten years, they would most likely be snipers.
Now in an open-ended question, for every one respondent who says something spontaneously, several more are thinking it. So this was truly news: A new ambition of the younger generation—not of a lot of them, but enough to be on a scale—is being a sniper.
“What do you think you will most likely be doing in ten years?”
(Open-Ended)
Working (specific job or career) 37%
Working (general) 23%
Attending university 12%
Married with family/kids 12%
Working (own business) 8%
Military (general) 1%
Military (sniper/sharpshooter) 1%
Other 6%
New America Poll, Californians Aged 16–22, November 2006
Well, you say, it’s just 1 percent. It doesn’t mean anything. But as I hope I’ve been proving throughout this book, 1 percent of folks can and do make a big difference, whether in business or politics or the social sector. And here, the fact that we have 1 percent of young people in California telling us that, in 2016, they want to join the military, specifically to be a sniper, is new. In the past, being a fighter pilot was probably the most sought after military career. This is a new idea completely.
When a lot of people think snipers, they think criminals. Especially for those of us who live in the Washington, D.C., area, it’s hard to think “sniper” without thinking of the two men who, over twenty-three days in October 2002, randomly killed ten people with long-range firearms from their car. And the major sniper Web sites—yes, there are major sniper Web sites (like www.snipersparadise.com, and www.snipercountry.com)—don’t do an enormous amount to disabuse anyone of the stereotypes. One of them posts, in its “Quotes and Poems” section, “God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot shoot, the courage to shoot the things I can, and the wisdom to hide the bodies.”
But the actual fact is: A sniper is an elite marksman. He is an infantry soldier trained to shoot from a hidden location, generally with a long-range precision rifle, and generally at a human, unsuspecting target. In the world of warfare, the sniper represents the ultimate surgical strike—he inflicts maximum damage, in terms of threat removal and enemy distraction, but with minimal collateral damage, escalation of engagement, or home-team exposure. And he is efficient. As an Army sniper instructor once explained to a reporter from United Press International, “In the Vietnam War, the Army shot thousands of rounds per kill. Snipers shoot 1.3 rounds.”
Snipers have become increasingly important in modern warfare. In Iraq and Afghanistan, where anti-American forces hide not in foxholes but among urban civilians, the U.S. military is increasingly called on to do battle more surgically. Here at home, with threats of terrorism being lodged against some of our most crowded cities, U.S. defense forces have to be increasingly prepared to face down threats without jeopardizing civilians. The U.S. Army Sniper School (yes, each of the armed services has a sniper-training outfit) is reportedly planning to triple its number of annual trainees. As the fighting in Iraq gets more intractable, it’s also considering all-sniper platoons.
