But it will take a sea change in attitudes, especially among parents and peers, to turn around the number of students going into math and science in America. I hope that as people come to understand the power of numbers more, and as books like this demystify them, more students will take it up. But this is a country founded on the humanities—by a group of writers and thinkers deep into language and history. Ben Franklin was perhaps the exception, and look at all those oddball pictures of him flying a kite. If only he had looked more like Thomas Jefferson.

  PART XV

  International

  Mini-Churched

  Do you remember the famous New Yorker cover from the 1970s parodying how New Yorkers see the rest of the world? The foreground shows a detailed Ninth Avenue, Tenth Avenue, and Hudson River; then the whole rest of the U.S. gets the space of about three New York blocks, with labels like “Chicago” and “L.A.”; and then way off in the vaguely relevant, but not terribly pressing, distance are the flat landmasses of China, Japan, and Russia.

  I’m reminded of that cartoon every time I think about how Americans regard religion, not only here in the U.S. but throughout the world. First, we think, there are Protestants and Catholics, with some key subdivisions among the Protestants. Then, there are a smattering of Jews and Muslims in some of America’s big cities, and of course lots of Muslims in the Middle East. Mormons live in Utah. And with regard to the world beyond, we’re pretty sure that Hinduism and Buddhism are big in places like India; and both Africa and China have traditional religions, although we’re not totally sure how Chinese religion and communism go together. Pretty much every other religion is a fringe group, maybe even a “cult.”

  Moreover, we think, the big religions—Christianity and Islam—are becoming increasingly important to their own followers—witness the rise of the mega-churches in the U.S., and the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the Middle East. But overall, we think, the world’s truly religious must be a minority—or at least on the decline—given the phenomenal spread of science, education, and secularism worldwide. After all, don’t we keep hearing about how Americans are a religious outlier? And how in places like France and Germany, regular churchgoing has fallen to under 10 percent?

  So here are some important truths to orient us. First, despite the predictions of many modern religion scholars in the second half of the twentieth century, the world did not, in fact, get more secular as it got more modern. In 1968, American sociologist Peter Berger told the New York Times that by “the 21st century, religious believers are likely to be found only in small sects, huddled together to resist a worldwide secular culture.” Nearly forty years later, in 2006, the same Professor Berger told a global religious conference that his theory had been completely wrong. We don’t live in an age of secularity, he said; rather, we live in a world of “explosive, pervasive religiosity.”

  Yes, and here are the facts. According to the World Christian Encyclopedia, which is a survey and analysis of the religious makeup of the entire world, there are nearly 10,000 distinct and separate religions in the world—with two or three new ones being created every day. Americans may be witnessing the rise of mega-churches—those sprawling God-o-plexes that offer everything from liturgical enlightenment to teen rafting trips—but worldwide, the opposite is true. What’s flourishing is Mini-Churches: small, and seemingly faddish, new groups of intensely devoted followers.

  This is, of course, a perfect example of microtrends. While we all want to understand religion through a couple of global megatrends—e.g., “Christianity is moving south,” “Islam is moving right”—the truth is that religion around the world today is the sum of tiny, furiously devoted, ever-evolving micro-alliances that push and pull at the landscape of belief.

  Of the 9,900 religions identified in the World Christian Encyclopedia, some are direct subsets of Islam or Christianity—like the 8 million Ahmadis, a messianic Muslim sect based in Pakistan; or the 300,000 followers of the Toronto Blessing, a Christian Charismatic movement based in Canada. Many are hybrids of traditional religions, like the 20 million Umbandans based in Brazil, who, according to the Encyclopedia, blend the traditional African Yoruban religion with native South American beliefs, parts of Catholicism, and nineteenth-century French spiritism.

  Who joins New Religious Movements, or NRMs, as they are called? Experts say there is no typical personality type that joins up. Young people who join are generally staking out their independence. Older people who join are looking for comfort their lives haven’t been able to provide. Certain ethnic or national groups—like Africans exposed to Christianity—turn to religious hybrids because the hybrids meld the new ideology with more homespun traditions. Almost all NRM adherents are looking for community, connection, affirmation, inspiration, and purpose. The sheer variety and opportunity of NRMs prove that belonging to a group with shared, intense interests—the very premise of Microtrends—is a powerful life force in whatever the discipline may be.

  The flux, variety, and dynamism of world religions are important for several reasons. First, many of these “micro-religions”—that you can be sure didn’t make it on to anyone’s New Yorker–like map—are quite big. The 20 million Umbandans, for example, outnumber the world’s Jews by about one and a half times, and outnumber Unitarians by more than twenty times. It is our perspective that marginalizes these religions, not their number of followers.

  Second, as tensions continue to grow between radical Islam and much of the West, the billions of Mini-Churched around the world make it clear that the “clash of civilizations” rhetoric goes only so far. Yes, some segment of radical Islamists is battling some segment of vilified Christians. But when it comes to the impact of religious conflict on the world, the more accurate picture is that billions of people are earnestly advancing thousands of religions, and the resulting tensions—both creative and violent—are propelling world change just as surely as the so-called Muslim-Christian “showdown” that is drawing so much attention.

  Third, experts predict that the kind of splintering, evolving, proliferating change that is going on among religions today is only likely to get more intense. Some say it is because of the loss of traditional religions’ influence (the secularization observed in the 1960s and 1970s) that more, and more varied, religious efforts take root. In that context, militant Islam is less a mere “clashing civilization” than an example of one powerful microtrend, and it proves that paying attention to under-the-radar religious groups is important when these groups choose violence as a means of achieving their goals.

  Which gets to the final reason that the Mini-Churched are so important. Scholars of these New Religious Movements may be one of the most important law enforcement resources around. While most of the 9,900 religions in the world are seeking peace, comfort, and spiritual fulfillment, there are a few, no doubt, that are growing in both intensity and violent inclinations. Already the FBI, and its equivalents worldwide, are calling on NRM experts to help them understand which groups are not just growing, but threatening.

  And violence aside, other Mini-Churched are growing in their sheer ability to convert. While small groups may seem marginal now, it is worth remembering that all the world’s great religions started out as somebody’s fringe, heretical revolution. Abraham the idol-smasher was a rebel, as were Jesus, Muhammad, and Martin Luther. Almost no one used to take Mormons or Quakers seriously, and now they are steady parts of the American religious landscape.

  Religion is fractionalizing, and the ability to bring together many people under a single religious banner is dwindling. Clearly Islam, which to much of the West seemed pretty cohesive, has turned out to contain many warring factions. But it’s true of all the religions. Organized religion is on the rise, but only through a multiplying of the organizations. Religion, which used to be four-square a part of the Ford economy, is now switching over to the Starbucks economy, tailored to as many individual preferences as we can come up with. These days, you can choose your faith and your prayer community in practically as many varieties as you can choose your morning coffee. It means smaller crowds in the pews, but presumably happier ones.

  International Home-Buyers

  Ask any real estate broker—actual or caricatured on TV—what the key to home-buying is, and they’ll say “location, location, location.” You can tear down any house and start again, but you can’t create an oceanfront, a mountain view, or a fabulous local school system if it isn’t already there. Home-purchasing is all about place.

  Which makes it particularly interesting these days that the most sought after places in America are being purchased by people from outside America. We all know that globalization means the economic barriers that separate the continents and the markets are being replaced by a single, unitary system. If you thought an ocean or two would keep you from having to compete with foreigners when it comes to buying a house, guess again. Foreign ownership of U.S. residential real estate could be the hottest trend in the marketplace. Ever wonder why prices in New York apartments keep escalating even though about the same number of people live there? The answer is increased competition for the same space, much of it coming from overseas. The Chinese and Korean governments may be buying our bonds, but the upper classes from around the world are being drawn to American real estate. Amazingly, there are no consistent records of foreign ownership of U.S. homes, so we have to piece together the story from snippets of information out there.

  A 2005 survey of Florida Realtors found that 87 percent had closed at least one sale to an international buyer in the past twelve months, and almost 10 percent had a clientele that was entirely international. International buyers made up more than 30 percent of home sales in Miami–Fort Lauderdale in 2005, and 15 percent of Florida home sales statewide.

  But the trend is not just in Florida. A real estate expert in New York estimated that foreign nationals made up one-third of apartment-buyers in Manhattan in 2004, up from only one-quarter in 2003. A couple of Las Vegas properties are more than 10 percent foreign-owned before they’re even built. Houston, Atlanta, Chicago, and Colorado have all seen an uptick in foreign home-buyers. And the U.S. companies that list luxury homes are seeing more international subscribers to their magazines and Web sites, and U.S. realty companies like Century 21 and Christie’s Great Estates are opening up more and more offices around the globe.

  The makeup and motivations of people buying a place on the continent next-door vary—depending on the buyers.

  Europeans. In the last few years, the euro rose more than 50 percent against the dollar, and the British pound rose 35 percent. (Even the Canadian and Australian dollars rose 30 to 40 percent against the U.S. dollar.) As a result, American homes seem remarkably cheap compared to real estate in their own countries. And have you ever been to those rocky beaches in England or the grassy ones in Germany? Soft Florida sand and Mickey Mouse are very big draws to our European neighbors.

  Central and South Americans. Buyers from Venezuela, Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico love the political and economic security of America, and consider U.S. homes both a safe investment and a secure place to live, should instability increase in their home countries. They also appreciate the personal and political freedom that the U.S. affords, not to mention the shopping. Add to that the comparable climate and Spanish-friendly environments of South Florida and Texas, and U.S. homes are highly sought-after.

  Asians. With the growing economies in Asian countries and the increased flow of business between East and West, having a residential outpost in the U.S. has become increasingly attractive to many Asian families. And U.S. Realtors have been assertively courting them, naming luxury apartments in Chinese and throwing launch parties with Asian cuisine.

  In general, the worldwide shrinking of airfare has made it easier to commute to your second home, as well as to visit foreign countries in the first place—which Realtors say is always the first step in buying a foreign home. In addition, new tools like multi-currency mortgages, which let you get a mortgage abroad in your home currency, but then switch if interest rates in the host country get more favorable, are easing the way for foreign home-buyers. And several U.S. banks are adjusting their policies to make it easier for foreign nationals who pay U.S. taxes to get home loans.

  In New York, Donald Trump was a major factor in opening up the city to foreigners. Most buildings in New York City had been co-ops, and since co-ops can reject anyone for just about any reason, they looked very carefully at absentee foreign purchasers. But Trump opened condos, and sales of condos are largely unregulated because they offer single apartments, not shares in a corporation. Now that most new buildings are condos, foreign buyers are streaming in.

  For the most part, international home-buying is a fairly upscale event; the median price of a Florida home bought by foreigners in 2005 was about $300,000, and nearly 1 in 4 such homes cost over $500,000. But as the middle class grows in Asia and elsewhere around the world, expect the practice to expand.

  And foreign home purchases matter, even beyond the buyers and their agents. Surging numbers of international buyers could have some effects on the real estate industry, like more banks shifting their rules on home loans. (Although if foreign buyers stop paying in cash, they could be less attractive to U.S. sellers.) There could be adjustments in the culture of home buys; foreign buyers from some countries like to low-ball their offers, haggle aggressively until the end, and eke out in-kind provisions along with the house—like furniture, or caretakers.

  Globalization could affect home design, too. Apparently, some Middle Eastern buyers don’t like kitchens right near the entertainment space, as it is not customary for guests to watch women preparing food; and some Latin American buyers don’t like having master bedrooms too far from the kids’ rooms.

  But more significantly, foreign home-buyers have the effect of driving up home prices for the rest of us. When noncitizens buy up one-third of the apartments in Manhattan, that nudges a good portion of middle-level American buyers into slightly lesser Manhattan housing stock, and knocks a good number of lower-end buyers right into Queens. At the luxury level, too, Venezuelans may bid up the prices of high-end Miami homes—but if there’s an economic fall-off in Caracas, and they default on their homes, their American neighbors may be left with homes that are plummeting in value. The growing interdependence of our economies now extends to the most local of purchases—real estate.

  Some lawmakers believe this trend calls for attention. In early 2007, in response to banks moving to make loans to foreign home-buyers easier, a California legislator introduced a bill to make it illegal for banks to issue mortgages to buyers who don’t have Social Security numbers. So far, the bill has largely been dismissed as nativist and unnecessary. But that might not always be true. While America is proud of its role in the global economy, it is actually not so proud that foreigners buy American real estate at much higher rates than Americans buy abroad. Just try buying an apartment in Mexico or a house in Bermuda, and see the hoops they put you through.

  And we’re protective of our domestic assets. In 2006, when Americans learned that the U.S. was about to hand over ownership of certain New York ports to a company owned by the government of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, there was a national outcry that lasted weeks and triggered a reversal of the decision. In 2005, when the California-based oil company Unocal was about to be sold to a Chinese company backed by the Chinese government, there was a public backlash that prompted a withdrawal of the offer. As of 2007, Americans are none too pleased that Japan and China own over $1 trillion in U.S. securities.

  The purchase of luxury homes one by one, in a couple of communities throughout the U.S., is hardly the same kind of “takeover” of American infrastructure, mega-corporations, or currency. But is it time at least to measure trends in foreign purchases of U.S. homes?

  Foreign policy experts are quick to point out that a majority of Americans favor international engagement, rejecting the isolationist idea that the U.S. should “mind its own business internationally and let other countries get along the best they can on their own.” Yes, but on the other hand, the number of Americans agreeing with that isolationist proposition climbed sharply between 2002 and 2005—from 30 to 42 percent, the highest agreement rate since the survey began in 1960. And while, clearly, Americans look more favorably on foreign “investment” (53 percent) than they do on foreign “ownership” (33 percent), it is hard to make the case that home-buying isn’t more akin to ownership than investment—especially when over half of the foreign buyers, at least in the 2005 Florida survey, said they bought their homes for vacation and/or part-time work, and barely a third said they bought them as investments.

  From the other side of the coin, if you are a foreign purchaser of American real estate, you may want to take a careful look at your investment—did they sell you the bottom floors of an ocean view complex, without an ocean view? Did you pay the full real estate commission, while others typically get a discount? Since many foreign buyers are just looking for some fun and a safe place to put their money in case their local economy tanks, they can be quick to pull the trigger without the same exhaustive shopping of U.S. buyers. On the other hand, while buying U.S. real estate has its pitfalls, it can actually be easier—in terms of U.S. regulations, the need for Social Security numbers, and endless credit checks—than buying stocks and bonds. So purchase away. As Borat says, “Welcome to America.”

  LAT Couples (U.K.)

  Earlier we talked about Cougars—women who date younger men, often without a long-term commitment. We also explored Commuter Couples, people who are wed but live in separate cities, at least during the workweek. Now here’s another twist on the unorthodox-ing of family life: long-term, monogamous couples who live in the same city, but in separate residences.